□ Our reporter Dai Anqi, intern reporter Wang Fangyuan, on December 5, in theShort-term stocks 27th live broadcast of the China Construction Bank·China Securities Journal Taurus Fund Tour, He Yiguang, General Manager and Fund Manager of the Great Wall Fund Research Department, and Zhou Wei, the Great Wall Fund Marketing Director, both said , We are optimistic about the A-share market next year, the incremental funds are worth looking forward to, and we are optimistic about the large consumption, technology and high-end equipment sectors in the long run. The structural bull will exist for a long time. Looking forward to the A-share market, He Yiguang said that A-shares are still in the process of slow bull and long bull, and will be in a volatile upward trend in the future. Zhou Wei cited the results of data analysis and pointed out that there are many phased market prices for individual stocks, and the structural bull market exists for a long time. The allocation value of the equity market is worth looking forward to. Investors should not easily "get off". Zhou Wei further analyzed. First, from the perspective of valuation, the ChiNext Index, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and other indexes are still in the middle range, and there are investment opportunities; second, from the perspective of corporate profitability, due to the low base and other reasons, next year Corporate earnings are expected to improve; third, in terms of liquidity, it is expected that next year will remain in a reasonably loose state. What is more decisive is the policy guidance. Whether it is the innovation of the system, the promotion of the registration system, and the inflow of overseas funds, the capital market will bring many investment opportunities. This year, the scale of public fund issuance hit a record high, becoming a new fashion for residents to invest. In this regard, Zhou Wei analyzed that firstly, since 2019, the income of more than a thousand funds in the market has doubled, attracting many investors; secondly, the yield of wealth management products has fallen, and public funds have become the first choice for investment; thirdly, real estate is not speculated Under the general background, consumers' investment in funds has increased. Public funds will gradually become an investment trend. Optimistic about the big consumption, technology and high-end equipment sectors. Regarding the investment system, He Yiguang pointed out that it is necessary to study the company, study the growth rate of performance, and choose a good time point. Specific to the sub-sectors, He Yiguang said that he is optimistic about the three major directions of big consumption, technology and high-end equipment in the long term. He analyzed that these industries have a lot of space and high ROE. Specifically, by 2021, we are optimistic about the five major sectors of high-end liquor, high-end manufacturing, machinery and equipment, national defense and military industry and real estate, and the market for valuation restoration will continue. He emphasized that the long-term optimism about the consumer sector mainly stems from two major investment logics. One is the growth logic, consumer products have natural anti-inflation properties; the second is the consumption upgrade logic, in which high-end consumer products have a lot of room for growth. Talking about the banking sector, which has experienced a large increase recently, Zhou Wei said that the rise in this sector is due to four major factors. First, the economy is in the range of repair and expansion, and bank interest margins are expected to increase; second, during the economic expansion period, non-performing loans may decline; third, from the data, it is more likely that banks' growth in the fourth quarter will be positive; Fourth, there are more loans in the first quarter of each year, and bank profits are expected to increase. For subsequent investments in this sector, He Yiguang suggests choosing stocks with outstanding fundamentals and management to hold for a long time. Recently, the new stock index has risen somewhat, which has aroused the attention of some investors. He Yiguang believes that the sub-new stocks have certain research value. However, investors are advised to maintain risk awareness and buy when the valuation reaches a reasonable position.
On the morning of September 5, Xinjiang Tianshan Tianchi Scenic Area welcomed the first batch of more than 600 tourists from other provinces and regions, marking the resumption of Xinjiang's tourism industry. As the last few provinces and municipalities restricted by foreign tourists in China, the lifting of the ban in Xinjiang also marks that the tourism industry across the country has basically achieved a full recovery across provinces, regions and cities.
On the evening of March 9th, Beijing time, US stocks fell sharply at the opening overnight, and the S&P 500 opened 7% to trigger the fuse mechanism and suspended trading for 15 minutes. The Dow fell 29%, refreshing its lowest value since the beginning of 2019. Data show that in the US stock market for more than 30 years, the circuit breaker has only been triggered once before: On October 27, 1997, the Dow Jones Industrial Index plummeted 18% to close at 71,615 points, the largest drop since 1915. It is reported that during US stock trading hours, the circuit breaker mechanism can be divided into three levels. The primary market fuse means that the market has fallen by 7%; the secondary market fuse means that the market has fallen by 13%; the tertiary market fuse means that the market has fallen by 20%.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the target price of U.S. crude oil in 2020 is US$60 and the average price of Brent crude oil is US$63. JPMorgan Chase predicts that the target price of US crude oil futures in 2020 is 60 US dollars, and the target price of Brent crude oil futures is 65 US dollars. Platts Energy believes that the price of Brent crude oil futures will remain above US$65 at the beginning of 2020 and will fall back to a low of US$60 per barrel by the end of the year. The U.S. Energy Agency (EIA) predicts that the price of Brent crude oil in 2020 will be around $61, and the price of U.S. crude oil will fall to $55.
In 2020, based on the winning bid amount, the main competitors of AC transformers in my country's AC UHV equipment market are Xidian (601179) (30%), TBEA (600089) (35%) and Baobian Electric (600550) (30 %); GIS main competitors are Pinggao Electric (600312) (45%), Xidian (30%) and New Northeast Electric (20%). In 2020, based on the winning bid amount, the main competitors of AC transformers in my country's DC UHV equipment market are Guodian NARI (600406) (50%), Xu Ji Electric (000400) (30%) and Xidian (15%); The main competitors for converter transformers are TBEA (30%), Xidian (20%), Baobian Electric (20%) and Shandong Electric Power Equipment (20%).
Since 2020, all kinds of speculation and hype surrounding the two giants in the securities industry have not stopped. With the spread and clarification of merger rumors, the stock prices and performance of the two leading brokerage firms have beenShort-term stocks rising, which is welcome to investors anyway.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Consulting Group, said that the Fed must have launched its monetary policy bazooka. This works best because I don’t know what they have left, and no amount of money falling from the sky can cure this virus. Only time and medicine can.